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Friday, June 01, 2007

To ruin a perfect day!

For today, let's look at how our bias can make us neglect obvious chart patterns.

When I got up in the morning, one of the stocks that I am long (Peninsula Land) has just done incredibly well. It was up 18.5% for the day. The chart attached below. It bounced from 2 key areas:

  1. At the 15DMA support.
  2. From the rising trendline marked in the chart.



So there was the ego booster of the day. A short while after that the US markets opened and the share I was short started moving up. Now look at the chart pattern and you will see that it has already created a rising trendline. Only after it broke the all time highs, did I actually notice this rising trendline. Though the position hasn't been covered yet, any weakness will be used to cover this position. Chart is below.

Please note that this indicates short term upswing and the rising wedge indicates downside. We will cover half the shorts on any weakness and then reinstate short positions later.

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