TheBoyPlunger's Method to the madness

Weekly Close in the Red

2007-08-27T23:15:00.000-04:00

A quick update with some charts: This week we should be hitting the downward sloping resistance and from there begin a downward journey. This will be very crucial and should go onto test the lows we made a few weeks back.

At this point, we will not be buying this market but wait on the sidelines and see the market action in the pullback.

Dow:

Sensex:

Buy Call - US Aug 22 2007

2007-08-22T19:26:00.000-04:00

We bought half of our position in CBST today at 24.19. This is a new pick and a more detailed analysis will be done over the weekend.

Short Call - US Aug 22nd 2007

2007-08-22T19:22:00.000-04:00

We reinitiated a fresh short in AKS today. The price was at 35.15.

On hindsight we should have waited for a 'red flag' candle.

Base Building and a big red candle

2007-08-19T22:10:00.000-04:00

As we expected, it was a very volatile week. All markets had a major crash in the middle of the week with the DOW and FTSE recovering on Friday. Asian markets have started off strongly today.

The end of this correction is in sight. However before the new rally begins, a base will be built. The lows that we have made over the week might be tested. If we look at the charts, we don't see a candle, ie, the close was not at the lows but rather the lows were intraday.

With this structure we can visualise 2 scenarios:

The lows that has been formed will be revisited, ie, a new low or very close to the previous one will be made. This will be marked by a big red candle on a weekly or daily chart. This means that the close will be at the day's low unlike what we saw in this week.
The lows that have formed will not be breached but a quiet period will follow in which the market will oscillate in a narrow range at last week's close. This is called volatility compression. This will be marked by a series of smaller candles on a weekly or daily chart very close to this week's close.

We will wait and observe the market for either of these structures. Our preferred view is the first option listed above. Ideally speaking we should form this either the ensuing week or the next.

We also used yesterday's lows, to pick up some index funds(HDFC Index Fund and HDFC Index Plus Fund) and midcap funds(Sundaram BNP Paribas Select Midcap)on the Indian markets. This corresponds to 50% of our allocation for mutual funds. We will most probably increase our short holdings in the US market over the course of this week.

Cover Call - US Aug 16 2007

2007-08-16T18:54:00.000-04:00

We covered our short of AKS today to the extent of 40% at 28.30. Our net gain on this is 25%. We still some weakness in this stock but for now it is oversold. If we get a good price tomorrow, we will cover the remaining. Else we will wait for a rally to initiate fresh short positions.

Not out of the woods yet

2007-08-09T00:16:00.001-04:00

After a rather weak and jittery 2 weeks, we have had a nice rally all across the board. The FTSE, Dow, Bovespa, HSI and the Sensex all made signifcant highs while the Nikkei was marginally high.

Does this mean that this is a time to buy?
As we know, whenever we have a downturn, the markets always build a base. As we haven't built a base yet, it's still not a time to turn bullish. It will be interesting to see what happens in the pull back. Will the prior lows hold or will we go onto breach those lows.

As we had noted that this week we will probably be marginally higher, we were off by a small %. However the nature of the rally has been ferocious.

At this point, inspite of the good picture all around, we will continue to exercise caution and still believe that we should breach those prior lows and build a base. From a medium to long term perspective, it will be good for us to have a little more correction before the bull run commences. Else we will have a suspect rally which has a higher chance of failure.

Sell Call - India Aug 7th 2007

2007-08-07T11:18:00.000-04:00

We sold off the remaining position in USHBEL today at a price of 273.5. With this we have no long positions in any of the markets.

Our only position is a short in AKS.

Probable Bottoms - Wolfe Wave and Supports

2007-07-29T23:48:00.000-04:00

As expected, the markets have tumbled over the last week. All markets, with the exception of China, have really taken a beating with the US, FTSE, Bovespa and Nikkei taking a pounding through out the week. The Sensex and Hangseng held out till the middle of the week before going down.

Now we can do a calculated guess on the probable bottom scenarios for the markets using a combination of Wolfe Waves and prior supports. Pls note that this is an academic exercise. This week should be slightly quiet and might end up flat or slightly in the green.

The targets are indicated in the charts with the Pink Circle.

DOW:
The Dow looks like it should bottom around 12750(which is the prior top) and the Wolfe Wave coincides nicely with this as a bottom.

S&P500: The S&P500 closed the day at the prior top around 1460. We need to go slightly lower to get the next support around 1410 and the Wolfe Wave targets coincides around this target.

FTSE: The FTSE has already taken a severe pounding this week. At 6200, it might be close to its bottom though we might see some further downside. If this breaks, the next support should be around 6000.

Sensex: The Sensex held its downside for most of the week. But all this was wipred out on Friday. Opening with a 300 point gap down, the Sensex closed the day almost 600 points down. The probable target for the Sensex is around 13500, where the Wolfe Wave meets with the prior resistance.

Bogus Headlines and the FTSE

2007-07-24T23:40:00.000-04:00

A few days back we noted that FTSE will be the index to watch. Needless to say today's weakness on the US markets was triggered by the FTSE.

Compared to this, look at the media headlines after today's crash on the DOW:
Dow Sinks 226 on Mortgage Market Worries

Headline for the crash on FTSE:
FTSE down on subprime lending woes, US market drop

The reality is that the FTSE was down almost 1% before the US markets opened. When the FTSE closed down 1.9% for the day, the DOW was down only 70 points. It was only towards the close of the day that the DOW plunged.

Watch the FTSE - it's been showing weakness for some time now. From what we can make out, for the last few days, the DOW follows the FTSE and tomorrow Asia(maybe excluding China) should follow the DOW.

Also take a look at the chart below. Previously, though the FTSE moved below the 50EMA, it managed to close very close to it and subsequenly recovered. However after today's plunge, it has blown past the 50EMA and the next support is the 200EMA with the 50EMA being the obvious resistance.

It's not a bull nor a bear but a Wolfe Wave!

2007-07-22T18:46:00.000-04:00

Let's do a Wolfe Wave analysis on 3 indices - FTSE, S&P500 and BSE. This exercise will be split across 2 parts - the first part will cover the Wolfe Wave analysis in recent history. The second part will be applied on the possible scenarios that we can expect in the coming few weeks.

The Wolfe Wave:
In technical analysis, it is a naturally occurring trading pattern present in all financial markets. The pattern is composed of five waves showing supply and demand and a fight towards an equilibrium price. These patterns can develop over short- and long-term time frames such as minutes or weeks and are used to predict where a price is heading and when it will get there.

With that in mind, let's apply the Wolfe Wave to 3 Indices.

FTSE:

BSE:

S&P500:

Guessing the top thru the Magic Numbers

2007-07-18T23:49:00.000-04:00

Let's look at the Magic Numbers at play on the Sensex. This exercise will be split into 3 parts - The Feb Correction, The March Bottom and The June Breakout. For the 'Feb correction' all numbers are in place and they are being used to show how important these numbers are. The 'March Bottom' and 'June Breakout' are still ongoing and the top is assumed at 15675.

The Feb Correction:
This can be seen from the charts and it is self explanatory. Starting at the top of 14724, the 38.2%, 50% and 61.8% stand out as very important numbers to the 100% mark at 12316.

The March Bottom:
This number sequence starts from the bottom at 12316 and the top is assumed at 15675. With this in mind, the numbers work out really well. We see:
1. The 61.8% mark acts as the first resistance to the upmove.
2. The 38.2% mark acts as the first support to the upmove.
3. The 50% mark now acts as the support to the upmove.
4. The 61.8% mark now acts as the final support to the upmove.

The June Breakout:
This is actually the Magic Numbers in the 68.1% to 100% region of the 'March Bottom' chart. We see:
1. The 0% offers the first strong support to the breakout.
2. The 38.2% mark sees the close of the doji.
3. The 61.8% mark offers the final support to the breakout.

FTSE to lead the way

2007-07-18T23:31:00.000-04:00

The markets broke down in the early hours and then pulled back strongly to close the day marginally down(DOW) and marginally up(India). However the FTSE was down almt 1.4%. Increasingly we feel that the FTSE will be the index to watch.

With today's close, the FTSE closed below 50EDA and that raises a strong red flag. However we have veen bearish for a while and the markets have moved abt 2-3% since then. So we will keep our short positions light and watch what the markets have in store.

Attached below is the 'MAGIC numbers' on the FTSE chart. If the numbers fit well, then we have already seen the top and the bear is tightening its grip on the index. If FTSE breaks, the rest should follow soon.

We make new highs!

2007-07-13T00:47:00.001-04:00

Contrary to our bearish views, the DOW zoomed past the mark that we were watching - 13710 to 13870 and closed at 13860.

At this point, we still remain bearish and though the indices don't look like stopping, we will remain on the sidelines. Our short of AKS is in the red by abt 5% and that remains our only position.

India:
We have had a beautiful start to the day. However it has opened with a gap-up and this marks the exhaustion gap. We should see some weakness here. In addition to this, it is now at the rising channel and should come down from here.

We bought a few more options yesterday and our average on all the option is now 74. Though the exhaustion gap is a bearish sign, we are not sure if we need to add onto our positions as corrections usually don't begin in the third week of the month. In case we decide to add onto our positions, we will update the same.

Since the Index has crossed the 15100(Sensex) and 13710(DOW)mark, that we were observing, it is really something unexpected. We don't see a reason to enter the market right now, apart from going short. Since the market seems to have a mind of its own, we will keep our short positions light.

The Game of Options

2007-07-12T00:21:00.000-04:00

Today, we will discuss how profitable and risky the game of options can be. As you might be aware, options are inherently a high risk/profit instrument. In addition, their inherent loss of value thru time decay makes us use options very rarely. Before we go into when Options need to be used, let's take a look at yesterday's trade.

For instance, yesterday we bought the 4400 July PE at 85 when the Nifty was trading at 4400. Though the Nifty did close later in the day at 4387, ie, 13 points down, the put actually closed at 75, ie, it had lost some value because of time decay.

The lesson that we can learn from this is that - Options should be bought near to the close of the day and need to be sold in the early hours of trading. Also options should be used when a large swing is to be seen. We used options(call) in early April because we saw that a huge swing was in the offing and had fabolous gains. Similarly we use them now because we feel that the trend is changing to the negative and we see a good swing in the downward direction.

If, for instance, we had traded options in the month of May, the profits would be very less, even if we got the index movement correctly, because the time decay would have eaten away what little movement was made by the indices.

That being said we will put an order at 49 for 4400PE today and we will see if it will be executed. This will be the last of the options that we will buy.

Short Call - India Jul 11th 2007

2007-07-11T00:42:00.000-04:00

We bought Nifty 4400PE(Jul 2007) at a price of 85. This is a positional call.

Infy, Candlesticks and RSI

2007-07-10T23:53:00.000-04:00

Today is the Infy results and will have some definite impact on the market.

Market recap:
The DOW and FTSE had a bad day today and down almost 1.2%. The resistance that we have been talking abt, came into effect and sent the markets tumbling. In addition, we feel that this is definitely the start of the correction and as can be marked on the charts, the logical first target will 13000(38.2%). Also take a look at the RSI. The band, as shown in the chart, has been acting as a resistance and support. So far the resistance has worked. Will the support work? Refer the chart for more details

The Nikkei and Hangseng, though down almost 200 points at one time, have recovered marginally.

India:
Today is the big day - Infy results. That being the case, the global markets are sure to put pressure as well as we were at strong resistance.

In addition to the resistance, take a look at the candlesticks. We had a doji(Point B) and a bearish engulfing (Point A and B). Both are bearish patterns and go in line with our bearish view. Notice the candlestick pattern once the RSI starts moving down - Doji and bearish engulfing in both the cases. Refer the chart for more details.

Depending on price behaviour we might build short positions today. We expect the market to hold up in the morning because of the Infy results and then subsequently go down. If that is the case, we can build some short positions today.

Analysis of secondary indicators

2007-07-08T21:35:00.000-04:00

As we have previously noted, we have the following view on the markets:

US DJI - bearish. The view will change only if we cross 13710.
India Sensex- topping. We said our target will be 14950-15100. The Sensex hit 15007 before closing around 14965.

Having said that, we feel this week will make the direction clear. Use oppotunities in the start of the week to unload all holdings. As we approach the middle of the week, we can build some short positions in the Indian market. In the US markets, we already have short positions.

Let's look at some of the secondary indicators:
Nasdaq Bullish %:
Though the Nasdaq has been making new highs, the BP index has failed to make new highs. This negative divergence has helped in timing previous corrections and goes in line with our bearish view. The chart provides more information.

DOW Bullish %:
The chart is self explanatory. The negative divergence bolsters our bearish view.

Inching closer to the doom?

2007-07-05T23:53:00.000-04:00

We saw the red signals yesterday and accordingly started moving into cash. Let's see what we can expect:

The DOW and the S&P500 both closed almost unchanged. However the Nasdaq was up .45% and closed at 2656.65. With this the Nasdaq has the hit the 38.2% retracement of the corrective from its 2001 peak. It is natural for this to be a very strong resistance.

The DOW is stuck in a range and it can move either way. However we feel that most likely way is downward. Accordingly our bearish view continues as before.

The Nikkei and the HangSeng both opened in the red. But the Hangseng has since recovered.

India:
Up strongly in the morning, the Sensex hit 14964 and then went down from there almost 230 points to hit 14730 before recovering from there to close marginally down. The resulting doji leaves a very bearish cloud hanging over the markets. Accordingly we moved signifincantly onto cash, with some holdings still left (Click here for curre nt holdings and past performance).

Charts:
If we see the charts below for the Sensex, DOW and the Nasdaq, you will see that all 3 are now hitting resistance trendlines. They have also shown the doji on the charts. The markets remain overbought and our preferred view is that they should correct. See the chart for more information.

Another round of selling

2007-07-05T02:43:00.000-04:00

We sold another 25% of MORGOK @ 477 and 50% of our second position in BANIND @ 219.5.

No puts as yet. We will initiate puts once we have started trading below the channel that we talked about.

Some more positions closed

2007-07-05T02:03:00.000-04:00

We closed out our old position in BANIND at 221.5. That leaves us with the new position we started at 192.

We sold another 25% in MORGOK. Average price of 481. That leaves us with 50% position still remaining.

Moving to Cash

2007-07-05T01:40:00.001-04:00

The Sensex crossed our expected target of 14950 to hit 14964 and thereafter it broke 2 criteria:

Broke the lows of yesterday.
Also came very close to the falling channel.

Accordingly we have started moving to cash. We closed out all our positions in RAICAL at 41 and sold 25% of our holding in MORGOK at an average price of 491.

Perfect day for a debut

2007-07-04T22:44:00.001-04:00

The long awaited DLF listing is going to happen today. All the factors point to a good listing:

The Nikkei is up 100 points and HangSeng up marginally. So no negatives from them.
Vishal Retail achieves a 181% rise on the listing day.
The Sensex has broken onto new levels.

That being said, we would advise a sell on listing, hopefully close to 600. The long term outlook for this stock, and the entire realty sector, is strong. But our overall short and medium term bearish view on the market makes us inclined to sell this on listing or shortly thereafter and get back in at a later time. We will wait for the listing and make our decision based on the actual performance.

A chart worth taking a look at is the Blackstone IPO. Like DLF, this was a mega issue in the US. Like DLF, it had a lot of concerns surrounding it's listing related to valuations, but still had a blockbuster listing, before finally going below the lower band of its IPO. Can we expect a similar listing for DLF? Let's wait and watch.

On the overall markets, given the reasons mentioned above, we should be able to enter the crucial 14950-15100 band, that we had been anticipating, today. We will naturally turn cautious. Watch for any topping signs.

The DOW should also show some negative moves tomorrow. It is now at a crucial resistance and we can expect it to react from there and this will have some implications for the Sensex on Friday

Will the new highs sustain?

2007-07-03T22:22:00.000-04:00

We made a new high on the Sensex. However before we get into a discussion on that, let's look at the US markets.

The DOW closed up abt 45points. The narrow 20EMA-50EMA band that we spoke about has been broken. However, as we have maintained, we still maintain a bearish view. Previously we said we will change our stance only on hitting new tops. However we are going to change the view slightly. We will now go bullish again on breach of the trendline(refer Chart). Giving it a slight leeway, the new mark for the DOW will be 13710 . We still remain highly cautious and still maintain that we will open up the Wave C downwards shortly.

India:
The new highs that we had been talking about, has been made. As peviously stated, we will now look for topping signs. The new target to monitor will be between 14950 - 15100. Once any of this has been reached, we will monitor for topping signs. A suggested strategy will be to sell calls instead of buying puts. However we will watch the action instead of building our own conclusions. Take a look at the chart below for some understanding of crucial resistance and support.

Office Toons

2007-07-02T17:09:00.001-04:00

What to expect in the IPO week - 2

2007-07-02T00:12:00.000-04:00

In this post, we will deal specifically with DLF and some sister REALTY stocks.

As we all know, the DLF IPO will list this week. We will take a look at 2 realty stocks - MORGOK and UNITECH, we will see that they have just broken out of a triangle. The volume dry up as the stock moves lower is also bullish. With this IPO listing on 5th July, we should expect some good moves in this week.

Please take a look at the chart for more details.

What to expect in the IPO week - 1

2007-07-01T23:20:00.000-04:00

As we saw, over the last 2 days of the previous week, the DOW jumped over the 20EMA, briefly, before settling back within the band of the 20EMA and 50EMA. Our bearish stance on the US markets continues and accordingly we took some new short positions. The bearish stance will be lifted only if we cross the previous high at 13740.

India:
An interesting movement happened in the Sensex on Friday. The falling channel was conclusively broken and we closed at 14650.51, abt 80 points above the falling channel. We can now expect lifetime highs. The falling channel and the gapup around 14550-14575 will be the crucial support now.

But a caution needs to be adopted because of the gap up opening. The first gapup, ie, the breakout(which we had said will be crucial support) was followed by the second gap up opening on Friday. This is called the continuation gapup. We now need to watch out for the next gapup,which is called the exhaution gapup. The moment we see this we will need to be very cautious. However we will deal with it once it happens.

Stock Analysis - Reader Request Jul 1st 2007

2007-06-30T23:44:00.000-04:00

An analysis of some stocks requested by readers:

IFCI: This stock has seen a huge run up over the last few months. The 52Wk low is 7.73 and we currenty stand at 56, which is almost an 800% gain. The stock is moving out from a late stage base. As a result of this we don't see too much upside in this. The stock is also now trading at it's lifetime high(set in 1997). We would suggest disposing of this stock in spikes to 57, though we might see 58-59 levels. However considering that the trade is done using calls, the time decay will negate any gains made. We would advise a SELL and definitely not a buy on declines.

GLENMARK: This stock is moving in a falling channel. Though it might break out of this channel, we don't see too much upside. We advise a SELL at CMP or 665.

KIRLOSKAR OIL: The stock made a 52Wk high on Friday. It might react a bit over the next few days but some upside to 340-350 can be expected.

BALRAMPUR CHINI: The stock is moving in a rising channel. Currently at 76.30, we can expect the stock to hit 85 and we advise a sell at that price.

Stock Followup:
UNIP: We recommended this stock but we did not enter into this trade. It was recommended at 310 and it still stands at 310. Our earlier target of 360-370 still holds.

Short Call - US June 29 2007

2007-06-29T10:20:00.000-04:00

We initiated a short position in AKS at 37.60. We have put in another short order at 37.75. In this short we are looking at slightly longer period than our other short trades over the last few weeks.

The second order has also been executed. With this our average price is 37.66

Will we break the falling channel?

2007-06-27T23:35:00.000-04:00

We said 'The Indices are now trading between the 20EMA and the 50EMA.' And today too the Index bounced from the lower 50EMA and got capped at the 20EMA. The falling trendline also acted as the resistance to the upmove today. As you can recall, we covered all short positions yesterday. Accordingly the stocks that we track as good short candidates , opened badly and from then went on to close the day in the green, and in some cases up 3-4%. However the bearish stance on US markets continue. We will wait patiently on the sidelines to initiate new shorts. Key technical indicators will be - doji/hangman and long upper shadows.

India:
The good move on the US markets provide us with a good chance to break the falling channel that we have been talking abt. Though we closed in the red, our key level of 14300 was not broken. The falling channel will be convincingly broken at 14600. We will have a relook at new targets if the falling channel is broken.

Will the US markets hold long enough?

2007-06-26T23:49:00.001-04:00

Another day and the same story. The market were up 100 points at one time before closing in the red. The falling trendline is still acting as resistance. The Indices are now trading between the 20EMA and the 50EMA. Will these 2 create a channel for volatility compression? Our bearish stance on US markets continues.

India:
The question is - Will the US markets hold enough long enough for the mega IPOs to list? Yesterday, interestingly, we managed to move slightly above the falling channel before settling back below it. Our stand continues - watch whether 14300 holds OR we cross the falling channel convincingly. Our preferred view is that we will take support around 14300 - 14400 and cross the falling channel. However if the market lets us know otherwise, we will have to change.

Buzzword: Watch 14300.

Will there be a tumble for AKS?

2007-06-26T22:30:00.000-04:00

We picked up this stock as a short candidate as a contrarian pick from one of the message boards. This was spoken of as a hot stock and we decided to analyze it. And needless to say, it looks like a good short candidate. Note the following divergences marked on the chart:

RSI divergence.
MACD divergence, though this indicates a potential danger as well. We will monitor this and weakness will be used to add fresh shorts.

We had an initial short term short position at 37.57, which we covered at 36.20. We target it to be around 35 at the 20EMA. However at this point we hold no positions.

A good price to initiate a fresh short is at 37.5.

Cover Call - US June 26 2007

2007-06-26T14:53:00.000-04:00

We covered our yesterday's short of AKS today at 36.20. Our net gain on this is 3.65%. We still some weakness in this stock but for now we will wait on the sidelines to build the next position.

Has the trend changed?

2007-06-25T22:30:00.000-04:00

A roller coaster day for the US markets. Up almost 130 points at one time, they then plunged and took support at the 50EMA and eventually closed 8 points down. This is a very bearish sign. Accordingly we have closed our longs and added a short term short position. The only way to be sure that the trend hasn't changed is for the market to close above the trendline that is marked on the chart.

India:
As we mentioned yesterday, things can move either way. However, given the bleak situation in the US markets, we remain extremely cautious. We share below a chart that was first shown by Vivek Patil that shows the formation of falling channel. We will issue stock specific sell calls in a seperate post. Unless the markets show otherwise, ie, breach of the falling channel, on the upside, at approx 14550 or takes support at 14300, we will assume the worst. We will reenter positions once any of those conditions mentioned are achieved.

Short Call - US June 25 2007

2007-06-25T15:50:00.000-04:00

We sold AKS short at a price of 37.57. This is the initial entry and based on the price behaviour we will add onto this position.

Sell Call - US June 25 2007

2007-06-25T14:50:00.000-04:00

We sold ATHR at 30.59.We had bought this at 30.49 and our gain works out to a measly 0.33%. With this we are out of all long positions in US. We will initiate short positions slowly.

Not a time to play the game of Averaging

2007-06-24T22:41:00.000-04:00

The US markets took a tumble on Friday with the DOW down 1.37%, the NAZ 1.09% and the S&P500 down 1.29%. More importantly it broke the crucial support at 13400.

The coming week and especially Monday and Tuesday will remain crucial. The 50EMA stands at 13291 and that will remain as the next support. Whether this will hold or not will decide what happens next. Given these uncertainities, we choose to err on the side of caution. Therefore we don't advocate a buy on decline strategy.

We might have a mid session market update depending on any adverse market action.

The Nikkei is holding out well. The HSI has broken onto 52 week highs and that is encouraging as we feel the Sensex lags the HSI by a few weeks.

India:
We closed the day sligthly in the red. The adverse reaction in the DOW might suggest some impact on our markets today. However the support we have marked is at 14300. If this fails the next support is 14000. This brings out 2 scenarios. If the 14300 support holds we will go onto make new highs. However if support is found at 14000, we will not make new highs and use the pullback rally to exit our longs.

Looking ahead, if 14300 is held and we go onto make new highs, the ensuing Wave C will target 12350. However if Wave C starts without making new highs, the target will be 12800.

Our preferred scenario is we go onto make new highs and we feel this is supported by the fact of the listing of the mega IPO(DLF) and FPO(ICICI) over the next few days.

Review of 'Seven Money Mistakes to Avoid'

2007-06-24T15:09:00.000-04:00

We came across this article on Yahoo! Finance - Seven Money Mistakes to Avoid. Let's review this article. Our comments are in Red:

1. Saving with the right hand and spending with the left
DIAGNOSIS: Mental accounting
SYMPTOMS: Keeping a savings account that pays 5% interest while paying Visa 15%; thinking a tax refund equals mad money; obsessing over the price of a new car, but failing to monitor the weekly grocery bill.
We agree to this point to some extent. However when it comes to the grocery bill, I think that's stretching the point a bit too much. Most people are penny wise and pound foolish. They will cut coupons, go 15 miles to save 50 cents. However when it comes to the big ticket expenses, they overlook them. We believe in the opposite concept - penny foolish and pound wise.

2. Playing it too safe

DIAGNOSIS: Loss aversion
SYMPTOMS: Quick to sell winning stocks but slow to sell losing ones; putting too much cash in money-market funds and not enough in stocks; reluctance to trade away what you already have, even for something more valuable.
This is one of the biggest mistakes that people make. As we have repeatedly said - everybody needs to invest. But what we have seen is people view investments only from a 'tax-saving' aspect or to buy a house and refuse to explore beyond this. You really need to be investing in different areas than the 2 mentioned above.

3. Looking into a cloudy crystal ball

DIAGNOSIS: Misunderstanding risk
SYMPTOMS: Putting too much of your savings in your company's stock; having very low insurance deductibles; thinking small-cap stocks will rise forever.
Most people don't understand risk at all. This is also a very neglected aspect in everyday life.

4. Living in the moment

DIAGNOSIS: Procrastination
SYMPTOMS: Failing to enroll in a 401(k) plan; not coming up with a monthly budget; waiting until the last minute to make your IRA contribution.
We think that this point is also a bit of an exaggeration. We believe that the monthly budget, etc is too highly focussed by most financial columnists. Remember that a budget has only 1 use - to make sure that you have the requisite amount of money left for investing. What people tend to do is get so focussed on the budget that they fail to concentrate on building their investment skills. The budget becomes a be all and end all which is not the actual purpose of the budget.

5. Throwing good money after bad

DIAGNOSIS: Sunk-cost effect
SYMPTOMS: Hanging on to a lagging mutual fund because you paid an upfront sales charge; making repairs that cost more than your car is worth; making decisions about how to spend time or money based on how much time and money you've already spent.
Yes, we agree with this. This goes in line with the GOLDEN rule of trading - cut your losses short

6. Letting your ego get in the way

DIAGNOSIS: Overconfidence
SYMPTOMS: Frequent trading; concentrating picks among a handful of "surefire winners"; thinking you're an above-average driver.
We disagree with this. You need to be constantly monitoring your investments. At the very outset, you might lag the benchmark indices but over a period of time you will gradually improve and be able to beat the benchmark indices hollow. Remember you can make money when the indices are going down by moving onto the short side. This is again the beef we have with most financial columns. They look at the market as a one-way, up street. Nobody ever mentions abt going on the short side.

7. Following the crowd

DIAGNOSIS: Herding
SYMPTOMS: Buying ethanol stocks because everyone says they're the next big thing; dumping your stock fund after a steep market decline; taking stock tips from family and friends.
We agree on some points and disagree on others. We disagree when the trend has changed, you better follow the crowd and get out of your long positions. The age old saying is very apt here - the markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. However where we agree is that you need to get back in the market once the trend changes and the markets start moving up. In fact we believe that buys made during this period turn out the most profitable.

Our support holds

2007-06-21T22:31:00.000-04:00

The US markets opened weak and the weakness continued for the first 30 minutes. And guess where it took support?

At 13400, which we had previously mentioned as the support to watch out for.The DOW hit 13398 before recovering from there to close at 13545. The support to watch out for is 13400 and if it holds up, we could cross the previous high at 13750.

The Blackstone IPO will debut tomorrow and going by the demand(notwithstanding the bad news surrounding it) it should do well.

India:
Though we closed at 13499, almost up 100points, we might see some weakness today. The support to watch out for is 14300. If 14300 holds, we should be on the way to 15000 over the next couple of weeks. We will continue to monitor the market for any topping signs.

The 2 sectors to watch out for over the next few dats are Reality(DLF IPO) and Banking(ICICI IPO).

Correction abt the DLF IPO

2007-06-21T00:47:00.000-04:00

In the post Dust off your bear coat!, we said the DLF listing is today. This is incorrect and the listing date is expected to be the 5th of July. The error is regretted.

Dust off your bear coat!

2007-06-20T20:55:00.000-04:00

A bad day for the US markets today. Both the DOW and NAZ down 1% and S&P500 down 1.32%. As said in a previous post, the previous high is acting as resistance. The DOW hit 13741 before reacting from there.

That being said, we feel this is not the start of the correction that we have been anticipating. The volatility that we have seen over the last 2 weeks indicate that the top is close by.

The Blackstone debut tomorrow should make things interesting. 13400 should offer support and only on the breach of that should we get the bear coats out.

The Nikkei, meanwhile, is holding out well.

India:
The weakness in the US today should get us off to a bad start tomorrow. With the listing of the DLF IPO, real estate stocks will see some interesting action. Gapup on Wednesday at 14300 should offer support for any weakness that we might have today. We have nothing to worry right now and we maintain a hold on existing positions. The bravehearts can initiate a buy-on-decline strategy.

The important thing right now is to watch the bounce on the DOW tomorrow.Just dust off your bear coats, don't wear them as yet ;-)

Buy ATHR - June 19th 2007

2007-06-19T10:35:00.000-04:00

ATHR which has reacted from the resistance trendline at 32.53 can be bought for the short term. The target will be close to the the resistance trendline at 32.50.

We bought it an average price of 30.47.

Cover Call - US June 18 2007

2007-06-18T11:03:00.000-04:00

We have covered ATHR at an average price of 31.12. The stock reacted from the trendline and we used the weakness to cover to give us a net gain of 4.53%

Acing your annual appraisal

2007-06-17T22:07:00.000-04:00

You know you have aced your appraisal when it looks like the ones below:

1.Since my last report, this employee has reached rock bottom and shows signs of starting to dig. 2. His men would follow him anywhere, but only out of morbid curiosity.
3. I would not allow this man to breed.
4. This associate is really not so much of a has-been, but more of a definitely won't be.
5. Works well when under constant supervision and cornered like a rat in a trap.
6. When he opens his mouth, it seems that this is only to change whichever foot was previously in there.
7. He would be out of his depth in a parking lot puddle.
8. This man has delusions of adequacy.
9. He sets low personal standards and the consistently fails to achieve them.
10. This employee should go far the sooner he starts, the better.
11. This employee is depriving a village somewhere of an idiot.
12. Not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
13. Got into the gene pool while the lifeguard wasn't looking.
14. A room temperature IQ
15. Got a full six-pack, but is missing the plastic thingy that holds it together.
16. A gross ignoramus - 144 times worse than an ordinary ignoramus.
17. A photographic memory but with the lens cover glued on.
18. A prime candidate for natural deselection.
19. Bright as Alaska in December.
20. One-celled organisms outscore him in IQ tests.
21. Donated his brain to science before he was quite finished using it.
22. Fell out of his family tree.
23. The gates are down, the lights are flashing, but the trains isn't coming.
24. This man has two brains: one is lost and the other is out looking for it.
25. He's so dense that light bends around him.
26. If brains were taxed, he would get a rebate.
27. Any dumber and he would have to be watered twice a week.
28. If you gave him a penny for his thoughts, you would get change back.
29. If you stand close enough to him, you can hear the ocean.
30. It's hard to believe that he beat out 1,000,000 other sperm.
31. One neuron short of a synapse.
32. Some drink from the fountain of knowledge, he gargled.
33. Was left on the Tilt-A-Whirl a bit too long as a baby.
34. Not the brightest bulb in the chandelier.

TheBoyPlunger Wallpaper

2007-06-17T22:03:00.000-04:00

Right click to save it!!

A trade for the BraveHearts

2007-06-17T17:19:00.000-04:00

Here is a trade that can be entered by the bravehearts. The stock is United Phosphorous(UNIP) . This is a purely a technical call. The expected target is slightly above the previous high at 360. Please note that this is a short term trade and we will not be entering this trade.

Chart of the day - ATHR

2007-06-17T17:12:00.000-04:00

This chart is a textbook example of the importance of trendlines which can act as support and resistance. The rising trendline for ATHR, which had been acting as a support, is now acting as resistance. Everytime the stock hits the trendlines and recedes from there. Taking advantage of this behaviour we have initiated a short at the trendline price of 32.53.

A very healthy bounceback

2007-06-17T16:44:00.000-04:00

We had repeatedly been advocating that the nature of the bounceback will be crucial in determining if the top has been hit and Wave C has started, or, that we will go onto make higher highs. Let's take a look at the charts and see where we stand now.

US:
We had indicated 13200 to be a crucial support. As can be seen from the chart, we hit 13250 but recovered very strongly from there to close at 13640, almost 400 points up. The indices reacted from 2 key areas - crucial support 13200 and also from the 50EMA . The next resistance is obviously the previous high which stands at 13757. We still maintain a view of either closing out all long positions and having short term shorts.

India:
We had indicated 13800 to be the crucial support. The sensex meanwhile came down to 13950 and since reacted from there to abt 14335 before finally closing at 14163. As can be seen from the chart, the support came from the 50EMA. Another interesting support has been 14000. This figure has acted as a support sometimes and a resistance sometimes. The next resistance is at 14500 and then 14700. However we will take this as it comes and not worry too much about it right now. This is line with our previous view of looking at the market behaviour itself instead of worrying abt what it might and could do. The earlier view of short term buy still holds, unless otherwise indicated by the market action.

Short ATHR

2007-06-15T10:34:00.000-04:00

We initiated a short position on ATHR at 32.35. The idea is to cover on weakness. We are looking at gains of 3-4% only and this is a short term trade.

As you can recall we had covered our positions recently at 30.15. Doing so has helped us preserve capital and given us an opportunity to go short at a higher price.

We added onto our position at 32.8. Or per share cost is now: 32.53

Quote Hanger

2007-06-14T19:04:00.000-04:00

"Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend, and step off before it is discredited." - George Soros

"This is the biggest poker game on the planet, and the money flowing into your account isn’t appearing as if by magic. It’s coming from someone who is still learning how the markets work, and who most likely followed his or her gut and got suckered into taking the wrong side of the trade." - Marty 'Buzz' Schwartz

"Men are guided in their conduct above all by their beliefs and by the customs that are the consequence of those beliefs. These beliefs and customs regulate the smallest acts of our existence, and the most independent spirit cannot escape their influence. The tyranny exercised unconsciously on men's minds is the only real tyranny, because it cannot be fought against. Tiberius, Ghengis Khan, and Napoleon were assuredly redoubtable tyrants, but from the depth of their graves Moses, Buddha, Jesus, and Mahomet have exerted on the human soul a far profounder despotism. A conspiracy may overthrow a tyrant, but what can it avail against a firmly established belief." - Gustave Le Bon('The Crowd')

"Think big, think fast, think ahead. Ideas are nobody's monopoly" - Dhirubhai Ambani

Buy BANIND

2007-06-12T23:39:00.000-04:00

We added onto our positions in BANIND on Tuesday at an average price of 192.5

Cover ATHR

2007-06-12T23:37:00.000-04:00

We have covered ATHR on Monday at 30.12

Stock Analysis - Reader Request

2007-06-10T15:31:00.000-04:00

We will analyze a few stocks that one of our readers wanted to run by us:

MIC Electronics: This is a recent IPO and as such doesn't have a price history for us to make any assessment.

ORB Corporation: This is a recent IPO and as such doesn't have a price history for us to make any assessment.

ILFS Investment: Conservative target of 165-180. We would advise a sell of 25% of holding on an incremental basis of 5 rupees upside.For instance, if you have 100 shares, sell 25 at abt 167, then another 25 at 172. Above 175, close all positions.However if you are looking at a time period of 6-8 months, then this stock can do well and hit 250.

Is this a time to buy?

2007-06-10T14:48:00.000-04:00

As mentioned in our previous post 'Our Current View' , pasted below for reference,

We still maintain that we will see 15000+ before the Wave C begins. Some reasons for our bullishness:

We had a nice day in the DOW with it up abt 150 points. Following suit, we might have an average to good day in most markets tomorrow. Which brings us to 2 very important questions:

So has the recent corrective come to an end
Is it a good time to buy?

We feel the corrective has come to an end. In the end of April, we had posted a likely view of what we expect in the future. In this chart ignore the time dependency and look at only the price behaviour. The invalidating scenario is the break of 13200 in the Dow(leeway of 50-75 points) which will cause us to assume Wave C has begun.

The same holds true for Indian markets as well, with the invalidating scenario being break of 13800(leeway of 100 points). However the crucial difference lies in the individual stocks. While most US stocks are in distribution mode, the Indian stocks look set for a brief breakout. So in short - we can initiate short term buys on some select Indian stocks with a stop loss mentioned above on the sensex. Click here for some of our picks.

The Chart for today:

Has Wave C begun?

2007-06-07T21:54:00.001-04:00

Another bad day for the US markets and Asia following suit with the Nikkei down abt 290 points(at one time abt 350 points). Continuing the same trend we should see India following suit. Let's look at some of the charts below for what to expect:

DJI:
The trendline that has served us so well has been broken decisively today. However as we can see from the charts, 13200(give a leeway of abt 50-75 points) offers support. If this is broken, then we can assumed Wave C has begun and short/close positions on the pullback that will follow.

Sensex:
We can expect a bad day today following the Asian markets. Yesterday, it reacted from the trendline and was down abt 75 points. However, as marked on the charts, the Gap up at 13800(leeway of abt 100 points) looks like it will provide support. We will see the action and make our decisions accordingly. The key points to remember during such times are:

Don't panic and lose your mind.
Be unemotional and if the supports that we track break, then get ready to sell on the pullback. This will provide us with the valuable cash and emotional stability required to profit from the next upswing.
Take each day as it comes. Don't expect action too far away. Observe and act.

Will Rain Calcining rain money?

2007-06-07T16:56:00.000-04:00

RAICAL: This is a stock which moves in sudden spurts. The idea with this stock is to buy and hold it for a while to take advantage of the spurts. We had issued a buy call on this at 35. During the previous week, there was news of this company doing a 500Million USD buyout of a US firm. Using the classic 'Sell on Good News', we disposed off 50% of our holdings at 49.

We would not issue a buy on this stock. However if you are holding this stock, then you can exit the stock when it spurts up. Ideally we are looking at a target of 55.

Banking on Bank of India

2007-06-07T16:45:00.000-04:00

BANIND: This is a stock that we have traded very often. We initially screened then stock around 155 and bought on declines upto 140. Since then the stock has done really well. We exited 50% of our holding when it hit 200 for the first time. Since then it has moved to 215 and is now correcting.

We can initiate a buy on this at about 190-195. The target for this stock is abt 270. What we really like abt this stock is the very high volumes that is traded on a daily basis.

Does USHA MARTIN look like a buy?

2007-06-07T16:36:00.000-04:00

USHBEL: This stock was first screened at 185. We then sold off almost 50% of our holdings around 230. The only worry that we have with this stock is the liquidity.

Our current stance is to watch this stock and buy it on declines to 230. The target for this stock is 310.

Our current view -

2007-06-06T22:36:00.000-04:00

After the last 2 days of significant declines on the DOW and FTSE, it is a good time to revisit the market as a whole. Before we go with the view, let's take a look at what has happened so far:

US & UK:
DOW: Corrected from 13757 to 13466 = 2.1%
S&P500:Corrected from 1541 to 1517 = 1.5%
FTSE:Corrected from 6686 to 6523 = 2.4%

Asia:
Asian markets have had one bad day and looks like one more to come today
HSI: Down from its highs. Interestingly Sensex trails the HSI by a few days. (HSI Chart)
Nikkei:Finally managed to sustain above 18000.Been relatively immune so far.(N225 Chart)
Sensex:Corrected from 14683 to 14256 = 2.91%
Nifty:Corrected from 4363 to 4198 = 3.8%

So where do we stand. From our old view as jack_stockpicks summarized below:

My personal view is that Wave C will start after we take out 4250. Remember May 2006 was Zig Zag, and since corrective patterns should alternate, we will have a flat this time. In a flat the Wave B should move above the start of Wave A, giving an impression of a new rally before Wave C begins. I would say maybe 4300 should be a target.

As can be seen, our old targets were easily achieved. We still maintain that we will see 15000+ before the Wave C begins. Some reasons for our bullishness:

Individual stocks that we track on the Indian markets are showing signs of strength without looking like topping action.
The DLF IPO is between June 11-14. We feel that the big IPOs are kept just prior to the correction. In addition they are preceeded usually by nervousness.
This recent weakness is caused by interest rate hikes. Interest rate hikes are usually signs of bottoms and not tops.

That being said - where will this weakness find support. We feel 13800 offers support. A breach of 13800 implies that Wave C has begun and we will hit 12350 again. However the more important thing will be where the next rally will terminate.

Is 13800 a buying opportunity? We feel that it is not the right time to buy. The time to buy was mid-March and April. The risk-reward is not in favor of buying right now. Out view is that we will make new highs. But we always believe that the market is king and with the adverse risk-reward ratio, it will be better to stay on the sidelines for medium to long term investors. This bull run will offer plenty of opportunities in the next 3 months. Staying on the sidelines will help preserve cash, confidence and the mental strength to make use of these opportunities.

For the short term investor, if the move to 15000 happens we will see very good returns in the midcap section. The question is IF!!

Catching the recent correction

2007-06-06T22:34:00.001-04:00

There is another forum which I frequent where I made the following comments -( Click here ). The details are posted below:

A month later we still remain bounded by the trendlines. Most stocks look to be in a distribution phase. Another week or two left? I have closed all longs and getting on the short side

What would you do?

Our Top Picks - US Updated June 17th 2007

2007-06-04T22:31:00.000-04:00

As we have had a bearish view on the US markets, we have been short. Our current short activities. Click on the individual security for some more information:

ATHR
AMAG

Click on our real time Gain/Loss Tracker.

Our top Picks - India Updated June 17th 2007

2007-06-04T22:30:00.000-04:00

Here is a brief snapshot of our current picks and our view. Click on them for individual analysis:

USHBEL: CMP 245, Target 310, Upside Potential 25%
BANIND: CMP 199, Target 270, Upside potential 36%
MORGOK: CMP 546, Target 1 775, Upside potential 42%.
RAICAL: CMP 41, Target 56, Upside potential 36%

Please note that predicting targets is a fool's business. A stock will know no highs and no lows. We are looking at targets in an ideal world. The targets are issued so that we can periodically book our profits and convert paper gains to capital gains. Whenever you have concerns abt any of the targets or stocks, pls leave us a comment or a note.

This Gain/Loss tracker will help us to track our gains and losses real time.

Real money thru Real Estate - Peninsula Land

2007-06-04T16:24:00.000-04:00

MORGOK: Initialy screened at a price of 350, the stock has done really well. We sold off 10% of holdings at 450, followed by another 15% at 520. With the upcoming IPO of DLF to be started tomorrow, we should see some nice action on this stock

We give it an immediate buy call with an intial target of 775. The SL for this stock is at 490.

ATHR revisited

2007-06-02T23:48:00.000-04:00

If you see the post below 'To ruin a perfect day!' we said the following

Though the position hasn't been covered yet, any weakness will be used to cover this position. Chart is below. Please note that this indicates short term upswing and the rising wedge indicates downside. We will cover half the shorts on any weakness and then reinstate short positions later.

However notice another interpretation of the same below. Note the prices have moved below the rising trendline and below that the trendline is acting as a stiff resistance. Each time the proces move up, the trendline offers resistance and the stock retreats on hitting it. The price now is at the trendline and it will be interesting to watch the action below.

For now, we reverse our call of covering shorts on weakness. We will observe the action and any updates to our stance will be posted. So our current stance is - Hold you shorts and see the action.

To ruin a perfect day!

2007-06-01T14:03:00.001-04:00

For today, let's look at how our bias can make us neglect obvious chart patterns.

When I got up in the morning, one of the stocks that I am long (Peninsula Land) has just done incredibly well. It was up 18.5% for the day. The chart attached below. It bounced from 2 key areas:

At the 15DMA support.
From the rising trendline marked in the chart.

So there was the ego booster of the day. A short while after that the US markets opened and the share I was short started moving up. Now look at the chart pattern and you will see that it has already created a rising trendline. Only after it broke the all time highs, did I actually notice this rising trendline. Though the position hasn't been covered yet, any weakness will be used to cover this position. Chart is below.

Please note that this indicates short term upswing and the rising wedge indicates downside. We will cover half the shorts on any weakness and then reinstate short positions later.

Why the BoyPlunger?

2007-06-01T13:35:00.000-04:00

The question I get asked quite frequently is - Why do you call yourself the BoyPlunger?

To answer this question, we need to talk abt Jesse Livermore, one of the greatest traders on WallStreet. A book based on his life 'Reminiscences of a Stock Operator' remains one of my all time favorite books on trading. JL was called the BoyPlunger because he was supposed to have caused one of the market crashes (by shorting or 'plunging') and for his age at that time, he used to look very young.

For me, even though I am 28, I still have to present an ID whenever I need to buy smokes or liquor. That's sucks!I always try to keep a stubble on, but that just makes me look like a rogue student. So that explains the 'Boy' part.

I also like to trade on the short side. The reason for this is 2:
1. Greed takes a while to simmer while fear is instantaneous. In simple words, a stock takes a lot more time to move up then it takes to come down. So trading on short side, usually gives you profits, in a shorter timespan.
2. Among traders, going short is like an indication of the sophistication of the trader.

So there you have it - why the 'BoyPlunger'!

Short Covering and BuyIn

2007-06-01T13:22:00.000-04:00

I was short this share and today I had to cover because of my broker. Here is the note that I got today:

Your account is short XXX shares of AMAG. We are no longer able to borrow all of the shares. You may need to buy back XXX shares to cover the short before 1:30 p.m. CST on 6/1/2007, or the security may be bought in for your account.

I covered a short while after that. And looking at the charts, I feel this is going down. I spoke to the account rep and he says that they don't have this stock in their inventory . Here is what I can make out from this:

A. This one is going down and they screwed me
B. Downside is limited as everybody has already sold.

Time will tell.

Your Star Signs Explained

2007-06-01T11:01:00.000-04:00

The BoyPlunger Rules

2007-05-29T16:17:00.001-04:00

History of the BoyPlunger:
We have been in business since September 2003. However our online venture is fairly recent. We started off with an investment in an IPO, which never really materialised as the IPO was oversubscribed. Our first investment was picked off the internet. Needless to say, we had entered at the top of the bull market. We were left as the proverbial bagholders in the May 2004 worldwide market chaos.

We then tried to diversify into other businesses, aka, network marketing. After some mediocore results in both the ventures, the group decided to focus primarily in the equity market. We had a profitable mid-2005 and early 2006. However we were hit by the Oct 2005 crash and May 2006 crash bringing down our net profits. Since then our results have been extra ordinary and included properly identifying the June 2006 bottom, Feb 2007 top and Mar 2007 bottom.

We branched into Option trading in Feb 2006 and have had good results in them.

We are currently operating in 2 main equity related instruments: Stocks(US and India) and Options(NSE India). Options, as a trading instrument, will be very selectively used due to their high risk, time dependent nature

What does the BoyPlunger want to achieve:

We will go short or long. All that matters is the trend.
Identifying the trend correctly is what we will focus on.
Once the trend is identified we will then go hunting for stock opprotunities.
We also plan on looking ahead. This is a very risky business but very profitable. We need to identify the headlines before they hits them

What do we provide:

The blog will be updated regularly with new ideas, current trends.
We will provide interesting and useful trading guidelines.
Charts and other new themes which could become the next bubbles. We will aim to be ahead of the curve.

IBO StarterPack

2005-02-01T20:42:00.000-05:00

I just got into Network Marketing a few days back. I had been desperate to get into Network Marketing for quite a while. And when this guy came and told me about the business I literally jumped into it. And I got started.
So what now!
It's not too complicated at all - of course you can get into this business and eat/sleep/drink NM(network marketing) . But till you see money coming you think - this is not for me, this is too complicated, I can't do this for me. Now let me tell you why this business is just right for you :
1. You have a cell phone/internet connection/Cost Co Card - don't you? If no, then atleast you shop at Walmart?
2. From the time you get up to the time you hit the sack, you talk to atleast 5 people don't you?Each of those guys talked to talk to 5 other people daily and so on.
Yes, I do both - so what?
1. I have GEICO as my insurance - why? Simply because my roomie had GEICO.
2. I ALWAYS fill gas in my car at COSTCO - why?Because it is cheap. But how did I come to know that it is cheap? When I came to US did i know it was cheap? NO - I knew abt COSTCO because my rommie told me it is cheap!
3. And the list goes on and on and on - I know Walmart is the cheapest place to buy because my roomie and my colleagues told me it is cheap.
Ok - so how does it fit in?
Here is how it fits in. Did my roomie get paid because I joined GEICO?NO.Did my roomie get paid because I use the fuel at COSTCO?NO.Does COSTCO and GEICO keep making money from me because of the work my roomie did? YES, OF COURSE!
It's this simple!
A COSTCO card costs you 22.5$ to become a member. To become a member of my business I charge 45$.
Isn't that expensive?
I have always liked numbers - so let me do some numbers.
In COSTCO, I save $0.10 per gallon. I need abt 30 gallons of fuel per month. Works out to 3$/month, 36$/year - a net benefit of $13.5/year.
In my business, let's assume you do 100$/month shopping (everybody needs 100$ worth of goods/month). And you talk to 3 more people . So you have 400$ business/month. Which works out to 12$ month profit(3% is your profit margin on goods). Which works out to 144$/year - a net benefit of $99/year.
The Magic of compounding and leverage
Say Jack becomes a member of your business. And he gets John, Jim, Jill into business. Do you think John, Jim and Jill will keep quiet. Don't they want to make money? Don't they have friends?Say they get 2 friends each.So now you have 1100$ of business. At this point I get you get a higher profit margin of 6%. And you are now making 66$/month - a net benefit of 756$/year. And that's how simply your business grows!
Why my business?
1. You are doing nothing new - you shop as you usually do, you talk to people as you normally do. You are doing nothing new!
2. I have about a million products that you choose from - health, fitness, electronics, food, house care, cell phones - products from IBM, Sony, Kelloggs, Circuit City, Verizon Wireless, Lee, Reebok - you name it and I have it. You need not worry about shipping, invoicing, billing, inventory, wastage - none of it. Absolutely no loss.
3. 100% moneyback - at the end of 6 months, if you don't like my business - tell me and I will refund your 45$ back. Try that with COSTCO - "Mr.CostCo I don't like your fuel, I want none of your business. Give me 22.5$ back". What do you think Mr.CostCo is going to say!!
What next?
1. Give me a call or drop off an email - either me or my business partner will get in touch and you can get started off with your business right away! And we will be there to guide you to make a stonger and more profitable business. It's in our interests to make you a success.
Cell No : 203-257-4086
email : nithin_pai@yahoo.co.in/jack_stockpicks@yahoo.com